From January to February 2022, the total amount of social logistics in China was 51.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% at comparable prices. The growth rate of the total amount of social logistics continued the rebound trend since the fourth quarter of last year, and was significantly higher than the level of 2019 before the epidemic, indicating that the overall logistics demand is still on the rebound path, and the logistics operation started smoothly.
From the perspective of structure, from the internal perspective, the policy effect of expanding domestic demand to promote consumption continued to emerge, and the demand for industrial and consumer logistics maintained rapid growth; Externally, the global economic cycle has not yet recovered to its normal level, and the demand for import logistics continues to fall.
The demand for industrial logistics grew rapidly, and new driving forces continued to increase
After the festival, enterprises resumed production in an orderly manner, and the demand for industrial logistics maintained a rapid growth. In January and February, the total logistics volume of industrial products increased by 7.5% year on year, 1.4 percentage points faster than the average growth rate of 2020-2021.
From the perspective of structure, the new momentum continues to exert its power, and its supporting role in the demand for industrial logistics is enhanced. The high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry continued to grow rapidly. In January and February, the total logistics volume of high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 14.4% and 9.6% respectively year on year, 2.3 and 3.4 percentage points faster than that in December of last year.
From the perspective of industry, computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and instrument manufacturing all achieved double-digit growth, and the growth rate has accelerated on a month on month basis. In addition, the auto manufacturing industry grew by 7.2% year on year, 4.4 percentage points faster than that in December of last year, especially the production of new energy vehicles increased by 150.5% year on year, continuing to grow at a high speed on the basis of the doubling growth of last year.
The recovery of people's livelihood consumption logistics demand speeds up the continuous development of new business types
In January and February, driven by online promotion factors such as the "online New Year's Festival", the demand for manufacturing logistics of consumer goods at the production end was accelerated to recover, while the demand for e-commerce online shopping at the sales end and other logistics remained hot. From the production side, the consumer goods manufacturing industry accelerated its recovery. In January and February, the logistics demand of the consumer goods manufacturing industry increased by 9.7% year on year, 5.2 percentage points faster than the average growth rate of 2020-2021.
From the sales side, the new business form still plays a significant role in helping. In January and February, the total logistics of goods for both units and residents increased by 10.5% year on year; Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12.3% year on year. The e-commerce logistics index shows that the year-on-year growth of e-commerce logistics business volume in the first two months exceeded 25%, and the growth of rural business volume was close to 25%, maintaining a rapid growth trend.
Incremental decline of import price and continuous decline of logistics demand
Since the fourth quarter of last year, international commodity prices have continued to rise, which has had a certain impact on China's relevant imports. The data shows that in January and February, the import logistics volume decreased by 3.5% year on year, falling for five consecutive months. However, it should also be noted that the decline of import logistics volume has narrowed month on month since this year. With the gradual recovery of China's economy and supply chain in the future, the import scale will also expand.
From the perspective of import structure, the import volume of crude oil, coal, lignite and steel has declined due to the sharp rise in prices of bulk commodities and other factors, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.9%, 14.0% and 7.9% respectively; The demand for meat imports in agricultural products kept a downward trend, down 33% year on year.
Scale expansion of logistics market and acceleration of industry integration
The scale of the logistics market continued to expand and the industry integration accelerated. Since 2021, the market scale of the logistics industry has continued to expand, and the growth rate of the total income of the logistics industry has also maintained a relatively high level. In January and February, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 1.6 trillion yuan, up 9.7% year on year, faster than the level of 2019 before the epidemic.
With the development and growth of new drivers, the structure of logistics demand is constantly changing, which puts forward higher requirements for logistics services. Especially since the epidemic, the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry have accelerated significantly, and the logistics market has entered a period of accelerated integration. The revenue share of the top 50 logistics enterprises in China has risen to the highest level in recent years, and the overall industrial concentration has steadily increased. The industry concentration has been further promoted by the way of merger and reorganization of the leading express enterprises in the subdivided fields. According to the data of the National Post Office, the brand concentration index CR8 of express and parcel services in January and February was 85.3, which was significantly higher than that in 2021 and the same period.
The transportation business grew rapidly, and the logistics enterprises operated more efficiently. From the perspective of physical quantity, the freight volume of the whole society in February increased by 15.5% year on year, of which the road freight volume increased by 21.1%. From the perspective of enterprise business, the total business volume index rose rather than fell in February, rising 0.1 percentage points to 51.2% over the previous month. Since February, driven by factors such as the resumption of production, the physical quantity and business volume of the logistics industry have maintained a good growth trend, while the logistics industry has maintained a relatively efficient operation efficiency. In February, the capital turnover rate index and equipment utilization rate index in the logistics industry boom index rose 0.1 percentage points month on month, and remained above 50% for six consecutive months, reflecting that enterprises actively improved the efficiency of capital use, improved the efficiency of logistics equipment operations, and played a certain role in regulating the tight balance between supply and demand of personnel in the first two months of the year.
In general, the macro-economy continued to recover in the first two months of this year, and the growth rate of logistics demand scale remained at a good level. From the perspective of market demand and expectation, the new order index and business activity expectation index in the logistics industry prosperity index are 50.2% and 59.7% respectively, which are higher than that of last month. The business activity expectation index runs in a high boom range for two consecutive months, indicating that the logistics enterprises have a good expectation for the industry development.
However, it should also be noted that since March, unstable and uncertain factors have increased, and it is more difficult for the logistics industry to ensure the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
In terms of the external environment, the impact of the epidemic situation in some regions is still continuing, and the development level of various industries and regions is uneven. At the same time, the geopolitical conflict is still continuing, which may lead to blocked cross-border logistics channels in the European direction, tight transport capacity, rising freight rates, and increased pressure on the supply and price stability of key commodities under the impact of the supply chain. It needs to be followed up for analysis and close attention.
From the perspective of market vitality, the operating costs of logistics enterprises are rising, the pressure on the rising costs of raw materials and labor has increased, and the foundation for the overall recovery of the industry needs to be further consolidated:
First, the linkage between logistics service price and cost is weak. Although the cost of raw materials such as oil prices continued to rise, the price of logistics services did not rise significantly. In February, the service price index in the logistics industry boom index did not rise but fell by 0.2 percentage points, and the freight rates of highway logistics and coastal bulk cargo fell month on month, which shows that under the current background of homogenized competition in freight services, the industry's bargaining power is low, and there is a certain lag in the linkage between costs and logistics service prices.
Second, the industry's profitability is under further pressure. The key survey data shows that the cost of logistics business of key logistics enterprises in January and February increased by 17.3% year on year, and the cost per 100 yuan of operating income was 90.7 yuan, an increase of 1% year on year, which was significantly higher than the average level of industrial enterprises above designated size. Among them, fuel cost and labor cost rose by more than double digits due to factors such as rising commodity prices and structural labor shortage. From the perspective of profitability, the loss of key logistics enterprises in January and February was nearly 30%, up 2.5 percentage points year on year, indicating that the operating pressure of logistics enterprises has increased, leading to further compression of profit space. The overall revenue profit margin was about 3%, down 0.2 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. Among them, small and medium-sized logistics enterprises suffered more obviously. The profit margin of small and medium-sized logistics enterprises was less than 3%, lower than the same period of last year, and there was a large gap with large and medium-sized enterprises.